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URN to cite this document: urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-5930-8
Title data
Mathes, Gregor H. ; van Dijk, Jeroen ; Kiessling, Wolfgang ; Steinbauer, Manuel:
Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change.
In: Nature Ecology and Evolution.
Vol. 5
(18 January 2021)
.
- pp. 304-310.
ISSN 2397-334X
DOI der Verlagsversion: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01377-w
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Project information
| Project title: |
Project's official title Project's id No information KI 806/16–1 No information STE 2360/2 Humans on Planet Earth (HOPE) 741413 |
|---|---|
| Project financing: |
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft European Research Council |
Abstract
Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.
Further data
| Item Type: | Article in a journal |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | extinction; fossil; climate; paleobiology; paleontology; biodiversity |
| DDC Subjects: | 500 Science 500 Science > 550 Earth sciences, geology 500 Science > 560 Fossils, prehistoric life 500 Science > 570 Life sciences, biology |
| Institutions of the University: | Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Professor Sport Ecology > Professor Sport Ecology - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Manuel Jonas Steinbauer Graduate Schools > University of Bayreuth Graduate School Faculties Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Professor Sport Ecology Graduate Schools |
| Language: | English |
| Originates at UBT: | Yes |
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-5930-8 |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Jan 2022 08:47 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Sep 2023 11:30 |
| URI: | https://epub.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/5930 |
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