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Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change

DOI zum Zitieren der Version auf EPub Bayreuth: https://doi.org/10.15495/EPub_UBT_00005930
URN to cite this document: urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-5930-8

Title data

Mathes, Gregor H. ; van Dijk, Jeroen ; Kiessling, Wolfgang ; Steinbauer, Manuel J.:
Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change.
In: Nature Ecology and Evolution. Vol. 5 (18 January 2021) . - pp. 304-310.
ISSN 2397-334X
DOI der Verlagsversion: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01377-w

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Project information

Project title:
Project's official titleProject's id
No informationKI 806/16–1
No informationSTE 2360/2
Humans on Planet Earth (HOPE)741413

Project financing: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
European Research Council

Abstract

Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.

Further data

Item Type: Article in a journal
Keywords: extinction; fossil; climate; paleobiology; paleontology; biodiversity
DDC Subjects: 500 Science
500 Science > 550 Earth sciences, geology
500 Science > 560 Fossils, prehistoric life
500 Science > 570 Life sciences, biology
Institutions of the University: Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Professor Sport Ecology > Professor Sport Ecology - Univ.-Prof. Dr. Manuel Jonas Steinbauer
Graduate Schools > University of Bayreuth Graduate School
Faculties
Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies
Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science
Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Department of Sport Science > Professor Sport Ecology
Graduate Schools
Language: English
Originates at UBT: Yes
URN: urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-5930-8
Date Deposited: 20 Jan 2022 08:47
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2022 08:47
URI: https://epub.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/5930

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