A Structural Account of Protest Occurrence : Evidence from the US

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Baule, Tim:
A Structural Account of Protest Occurrence : Evidence from the US.
Bayreuth, Germany , 2024 . - 41 S.

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Abstract

The occurrence of protests is regularly linked to a variety of structural conditions, i.e., socio-political characteristics. These are usually quantified using proxy or multiple variables. However, these approaches complicate comparing effect sizes and investigating interdependencies. In this paper, I address these pitfalls by objectively quantifying four structural conditions – grievances, resources, political opportunities, and personalities – using principal component analysis on the US county level from 2017 to 2021. The quantification allows for constructing a model with interaction and square terms, enabling the investigation of each structural condition’s effect individually and in a given context. The results are threefold: (1) Resources have the largest effect on protests, followed by personalities, political opportunities, and grievances. (2) Context greatly influences how structural conditions impact protests; e.g., grievances have a substantially larger effect when political opportunities exist. (3) Grievances increase the chance of violent protests, while personalities and political opportunities foster nonviolent protests.