Econometric Models of the Savings Deposit Market : Development and Demand among us Retail Banks, 1970s and 1980s

DOI zum Zitieren der Version auf EPub Bayreuth: https://doi.org/10.15495/EPub_UBT_00009188
URN to cite this document: urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-9188-9

Title data

Knake, Sebastian:
Econometric Models of the Savings Deposit Market : Development and Demand among us Retail Banks, 1970s and 1980s.
In: Journal of the History of Economic Thought. (2026) . - pp. 1-19.
ISSN 1469-9656
DOI der Verlagsversion: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837225101041

	Format: PDF Name: econometric-models-of-the-savings-deposit-market-development-and-demand-among-us-retail-banks-1970s-and-1980s.pdf Version: Published Version Available under License Creative Commons BY 4.0: Attribution
	Download (202kB)

Project information

Project title:	Project's official title Project's id SPP 1859: Erfahrung und Erwartung. Historische Grundlagen ökonomischen Handelns 255716236 Open Access Publizieren No information
Project financing:	Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Abstract

From the 1960s, the rising volatility of financial markets in the US troubled econometricians and bank managers alike. Both found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This article explores these challenges by focusing on two developments. First, it analyzes the adjustment process among econometric models of the savings deposit market. I combine the analysis of the FMP model used by the Fed since 1970 and the deposit model of the Philadelphia Saving Fund Society (PSFS), thereby pioneering the historical analysis of econometric models built by private financial institutions. I find that economists failed to discover timeless determinants for deposit flows. Second, I explore how the conditions of the savings deposit market shaped the demand for macroeconomic forecast models, using the PSFS as a case study. I show that while the rising volatility led bank managers to seek sophisticated tools to predict deposit flows, the deregulation of the banking industry put the forecasting quality of macroeconomic models for individual banks to the test.

Further data

Item Type:	Article in a journal
DDC Subjects:	300 Social sciences 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics
Institutions of the University:	Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies > Chair Economic and Social History Faculties Faculties > Faculty of Cultural Studies
Language:	English
Originates at UBT:	Yes
URN:	urn:nbn:de:bvb:703-epub-9188-9
Date Deposited:	12 May 2026 07:15
Last Modified:	12 May 2026 07:16
URI:	https://epub.uni-bayreuth.de/id/eprint/9188

Download Statistics

Download Statistics

Download Statistics

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year